The Dayton Flyers took a disappointing loss to the George Washington Revolutionaries on Saturday afternoon in Foggy Bottom, 82-62. Whether you want to believe it or not, a loss like this felt coming due to the last few games in which the Flyers struggled, especially in the beginning of games.
The first loss came against a top 25 opponent in Cincinnati; no harm no foul. In the previous game, the Flyers were saved by Malachi Smith in the last 10 seconds of the game against UNLV, avoiding a Quadrant 3 loss in the NET. Dayton also struggled in the beginning of their A10 home opener against La Salle before closing out the Explorers in the second half, winning by a margin of 14 points. The reaper finally came for Dayton’s slow starts, delivering the Flyers a 20 point loss, dropping the Flyers to 1-1 in conference play.
Let’s take a look at what this means going forward for Dayton.
They are in a true funk
Dayton’s loss capped off what has been a funk of sorts since the UNLV game. Dayton won that game, but that almost became a bad loss for the Flyers’ tournament resume. The Flyers are 2-2 in their last 4 games (the previous game was the win vs Marquette). It is not a good time to be in a funk, simply because A10 play is not the time Dayton wants to be taking losses that they shouldn’t. The majority of the A10 is either a Quadrant 3 or 4 game for Dayton, which only hurts their resume come march. If the Flyers want to get out of this funk, these things need to change:
3-point shooting
Here’s the Flyers three point shooting percentages in the last 4 games:
- UNLV: 23.8%
- Cincinnati: 27.8%
- La Salle: 28.0%
- George Washington: 26.7%
It’s officially a problem for the Flyers. It is no secret that Anthony Grant’s offense is based on effective shooting, specifically in 2-point territory. The Flyers are still doing well in that category in the last 4 games, but that is primarily because they have no other choice with the 3-point shots not falling. If the Flyers can start by getting their three point shooting even at their season average of 34.9% in games, the wins should be easier to obtain and will once again compliment the already above average 2-point shooting.
Defensive Rebounding
Dayton has allowed too many offensive rebounds to opposing offenses in the last 4 games. In the 2 wins, Dayton allowed 8 offensive rebounds, but in both losses, Dayton allowed 17 offensive rebounds to Cincinnati and 10 to George Washington. Call it lack of effort, situational awareness, boxing out, or whatever you want, teams are beating Dayton because they are getting extra offensive possessions. Dayton’s defense and ball pressure are doing its job (8 steals vs GW, 11 steals vs La Salle), and teams are taking contested shots, but Dayton is allowing too many extra possessions. Dayton did well in the GW game getting their own offensive rebounds (14), but by the time Dayton started racking them up, the game was over, and the Revs were waiting for the clock to run out.
Slow Starts
Slow starts is an interesting topic, and most fans think of this in an offensive standpoint. A true slow start actually take both offense and defense into account. Yes, the Flyers have had slow offensive starts, but these games have slow defensive starts as well. Dayton was down 0-8 to GW in the first 4 minutes of the game. It’s hard for a team to get out of offensive funks, understandably, but when the offense struggles to find its confidence, this team needs to rely on it’s defense. With Smith, Bennett, Cheeks, and Posh on defense, this team should be able to get a lot of easy buckets from defensive ball pressure.
Truthfully, the identity of this team needs to be defense first. Dayton has too many great defenders to not be a defense first team. Dayton cannot try and operate on half court sets alone. Teams are starting to figure it out, and the half court gets too stagnant with decision making at times. The offense needs to feed off of defensive pressure and forcing other teams into bad shots. The best way this team can get out of these slow starts is to increase the tenacity of their defensive pressure, force steals and turnovers, and get confidence and energy early from defensive wins. After all, it is what got them back into the game against George Washington. Imagine if they started out with that plan when the game is 0-0.
Long Term Effects
Right after the game clock hit zeroes on Saturday, the Flyers earned a Quad 3 loss from George Washington, which was a small dent to the resume. However, 24 hours later, and the NET ranking updated the loss to Quadrant 2, which is not bad at all. In comparison, the win at home against Northwestern in November is a firm Quad 2 win. What this means as of now is this is not a bad loss for Dayton. So good news for now. But hang onto your hats because Flyer fans will need to hope George Washington keeps winning and not endure more losses like they did against a not-so-good Richmond team earlier in the week.
The other side effect to this is that Dayton will need to start making these wins look good. The one trick to all these metrics and analytics is that the margin of victory or loss is taken into account with these algorithms. You normally don’t need to worry about the rankings if you just win the games you should and avoid the bad losses. But if the bad losses start to happen along with the good wins, you have to start eyeing the metrics a little more. Dayton is on the verge of having to play the metrics game, but I don’t believe they are there yet. But they are close.
As for the NCAA tournament hopes, Dayton is still firmly in the tournament according to many bracketologists. The wins vs UConn and Marquette hold a lot of weight, and they should as long as Dayton doesn’t falter in conference play. According to BracketMatrix.com (a cumulative bracketology website), Dayton is a projected 8 seed. This website has contributors of 179 bracketologists across the country, and not a single bracket has Dayton out of the NCAA tournament as of now. All is good for now for the Flyers.
Up Next
Dayton looks to get back on track as they travel to Massachusetts to face the Minutemen on Wednesday evening. UMass is having a tough season, which is their last in the A10 before they move to the MAC. UMass is currently 5-10 overall and 0-2 in the A10 with losses at Saint Joseph’s and home vs. Richmond). UMass is ranked #224 in KenPom and #266 in the NET. This is a must win Quad 4 game for Dayton, which means a win does not benefit them, and a loss would be catastrophic.
Posted In: General Discussion